How to estimate the ROI of AI search optimization
AI search optimization, also called answer engine optimization (AEO) or generative engine optimization (GEO), is the work of getting your brand cited and linked in answers from ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Claude, Copilot and Google's AI Overviews. Like SEO, you pay up front and results build over months. Enter your monthly cost, months you'll pay, months until full results, extra visits a month from AI answers, your conversion rate, order value and margin.
In the example, you pay $2,000 a month for 12 months, and AI answers build over 4 months to send 600 extra visits a month. 4% of those visitors buy a $150 order at a 50% margin, so each visit is worth $3 in gross profit. Over 3 years, that's 14,371 visits and 575 customers. You spend $24,000 and earn $43,114 in gross profit: $19,114 after the cost, an 80% ROI, paying back in month 16.
AI answers also send people who never click. Someone reads your name in ChatGPT, then searches for you on Google. Under More options, add those extra brand searches a month. At 200 a month, the example's ROI rises to 140% and payback comes in month 9. You can also set how fast visits fade after you stop paying (5% a month by default, faster than SEO, since AI answers change often) and compare with buying the same visits as ads.
AI search traffic is still small for most sites. Check your analytics for referrals from chatgpt.com, perplexity.ai, gemini.google.com and copilot.microsoft.com to see your current visits. If the real lift is 300 visits a month instead of 600, the example loses $2,443. Count only the first year and it loses $5,100. Results are estimates, not a promise of citations or traffic.